AI Hasn't Improved In 18 Months. It's Likely That This Is It. There Is Currently No Evidence The Capabilities

AI hasn't improved in 18 months. It's likely that this is it. There is currently no evidence the capabilities of ChatGPT will ever improve. It's time for AI companies to put up or shut up.

I'm just re-iterating this excellent post from Ed Zitron, but it's not left my head since I read it and I want to share it. I'm also taking some talking points from Ed's other posts. So basically:

We keep hearing AI is going to get better and better, but these promises seem to be coming from a mix of companies engaging in wild speculation and lying.

Chatgpt, the industry leading large language model, has not materially improved in 18 months. For something that claims to be getting exponentially better, it sure is the same shit.

Hallucinations appear to be an inherent aspect of the technology. Since it's based on statistics and ai doesn't know anything, it can never know what is true. How could I possibly trust it to get any real work done if I can't rely on it's output? If I have to fact check everything it says I might as well do the work myself.

For "real" ai that does know what is true to exist, it would require us to discover new concepts in psychology, math, and computing, which open ai is not working on, and seemingly no other ai companies are either.

Open ai has already seemingly slurped up all the data from the open web already. Chatgpt 5 would take 5x more training data than chatgpt 4 to train. Where is this data coming from, exactly?

Since improvement appears to have ground to a halt, what if this is it? What if Chatgpt 4 is as good as LLMs can ever be? What use is it?

As Jim Covello, a leading semiconductor analyst at Goldman Sachs said (on page 10, and that's big finance so you know they only care about money): if tech companies are spending a trillion dollars to build up the infrastructure to support ai, what trillion dollar problem is it meant to solve? AI companies have a unique talent for burning venture capital and it's unclear if Open AI will be able to survive more than a few years unless everyone suddenly adopts it all at once. (Hey, didn't crypto and the metaverse also require spontaneous mass adoption to make sense?)

There is no problem that current ai is a solution to. Consumer tech is basically solved, normal people don't need more tech than a laptop and a smartphone. Big tech have run out of innovations, and they are desperately looking for the next thing to sell. It happened with the metaverse and it's happening again.

In summary:

Ai hasn't materially improved since the launch of Chatgpt4, which wasn't that big of an upgrade to 3.

There is currently no technological roadmap for ai to become better than it is. (As Jim Covello said on the Goldman Sachs report, the evolution of smartphones was openly planned years ahead of time.) The current problems are inherent to the current technology and nobody has indicated there is any way to solve them in the pipeline. We have likely reached the limits of what LLMs can do, and they still can't do much.

Don't believe AI companies when they say things are going to improve from where they are now before they provide evidence. It's time for the AI shills to put up, or shut up.

More Posts from Likes-squared and Others

2 months ago

I cannot believe there's absolutely no way to watch free shows and movies anymore, there are too many paid streaming platforms and pirating websites have viruses and ads preventing you from watching it uninterrupted((.)) id rather follow the rules and purchase media moving forward because it is too inconvenient. Seriously, free and no ads or viruses with 1080p streaming is DEAD.


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2 months ago

Back pain during leg raises, sit-ups, and other core exercises?

Some of these exercises get a bad reputation for being "bad" for your lower back, when they're really just natural parts of human movement (waist flexion).

Like most things, if we train and build up progressively, they're not bad. They can strengthen us and prevent injury!

While there are other considerations, you may want to consider stretching your lower back with some dynamic stretches shown in this video!

Just some ideas to get you started!


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1 month ago
Website

website


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1 week ago
Emergency Workplace Organizing Committee tweeted: “No one can make you stay in an unsafe worksite. Close up and walk out with your coworkers until management or nature fixes the problem. Contact us for help.”  EWOC quoted their own tweet and added, “If your boss won’t let you evacuate: Convince as many coworkers as you can to all leave together & contact us right away. You have the right to organize & leave an unsafe worksite. If they’re not bluffing & still try to fire you after the storm, we’ll help you fight it.”  Attached to the OP is a meme of a skeleton marching away, titled “Just walk out - you can leave!” It lists, “wildfire smoke, hurricane, flooding, no heat, powers out, no water, tornado warning, AC broke, weird fumes.” Bottom text reads, “Climate sucks… hit da bricks!” Overlaid is the meme’s author, “@/organizeworkers.”

Thought I would share this here. Image is a clickable link that will take you to the account that posted it! ID has now been corrected, and is in alt text. It is also below, please excuse the redundancy:

Emergency Workplace Organizing Committee (EWOC) tweeted: “No one can make you stay in an unsafe worksite. Close up and walk out with your coworkers until management or nature fixes the problem. Contact us for help.”

EWOC quoted their own tweet and added, “If your boss won’t let you evacuate: Convince as many coworkers as you can to all leave together & contact us right away. You have the right to organize & leave an unsafe worksite. If they’re not bluffing & still try to fire you after the storm, we’ll help you fight it.”

Attached to the OP is a meme of a skeleton marching away, titled “Just walk out - you can leave!” It lists, “wildfire smoke, hurricane, flooding, no heat, powers out, no water, tornado warning, AC broke, weird fumes.” Bottom text reads, “Climate sucks… hit da bricks!” Overlaid is the meme’s author, “@/organizeworkers.”

End ID.


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6 days ago

If the Internet Archive goes down or stops allowing the uploading of books, the other GG archivists and I have everything backed up and are working on disseminating the archive amongst ourselves to make it more infallible. We'll reupload it if we must. I hope it doesn't come down to that, but I'm grateful we were all here to save everything while we're still were able to

As I've said before, will say again, and will say some more in the far future: The internet is ephemeral. If you love it, save it. Your copy may one day be the only copy.


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3 weeks ago

Hey you know what sucks is predatory companies that make you enter your email address so that they can harass and advertise to you to access resources you might need to keep track of expenses after a disaster. So, uh, fuck them.

If you need to track the cost of things like hotel stays, pet kenneling, medical care, etc. after a disaster you can use this worksheet.

If you need to create an inventory of your home for an insurance claim (and if you'd like to do this to keep someplace safe before a disaster) you can use this worksheet (two pages, instructions on the first page, worksheet on the second).

And here's a FEMA document with numbers for disaster relief groups and a checklist of documents that you may need to have replaced as well as a description of what to do if you had cash in your home that was destroyed and can possibly be replaced.


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2 months ago
ABOUT TIME!!! For Those Out Of The Loop Homeowners’ Associations In The US 1. Suck Horrendously In

ABOUT TIME!!! for those out of the loop homeowners’ associations in the US 1. suck horrendously in every way 2. were the beginning of the end of urban biodiversity


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2 months ago
Why Is My Girl So Pale

why is my girl so pale


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likes-squared - a backup of all the posts i've like'd on main (but now with tags
a backup of all the posts i've like'd on main (but now with tags

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