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Covid Thoughts

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So far the Covid pandemic has played out according to the models for respiratory virus disease. We are now seeing an increase of the infection rate above 1. The govornment wwwill invoke further quarantine measures with increasingly limited effect. But is this right?

Personally I don't think so. On the scale of deadly virus epidemics, the COR-SARS 2 virus is not that deadly. The average age of covid deaths in the UK is 82.6. In Scotland this is over the average life expectancy for both men and women. This is why the published death rate looks so high for Italy (11.5%) and the UK (9.2%) whose populations have a large old and frail cohort in which the virus was spreading through in January and February within the hospital system by the staff and by GP's in the communty,(mainly nursing homes).The models showed that (simmilar to SARS), hospitals would qickly not be able to take the increased number of patients with so many staff already infected. The govornment had to stop the exponential growth th allow hospitals to deal with the current infections, so imposed a national lock down. Adherence to the lock down by the populace was high and within days the r number dropped before 1. At this point I think the govornment should have relaxed quarantine quicker. Doing enough tests to have a reliable sample of the population meant the r number should have been monitored and allowed to stay around 1. By almost stopping infection over the summer the govornment has stored up greater infections over the winter compounded with all the other winter bugs. NHS hospitals have been quieter than usual over the summer but will now have more than usual until the epidemic has played out. Nicola Sturgeon said that "we must flatten out the curve". Correct but was it right to try and get rid of the hill completely?

I think Covid is the first example of the fourth stage of the above pictured population model. The UK's life expectancy has stalled since 2012 but the numbers of older people has continued to rise. This has created a pool of susceptible individuals who won't make it through the next serious infection. As an epidemic kills off that pool of people, the life expectancy rate drops. Then as time goes by the population fills up the older groups again leaving hills and valleys in the overall graph. No population in nature can remain stable for ever. Humans arn't exempt from nature.

I understand my assessment is rather sanguine and there is deaths and lingering conditions amongst younger people but there is always outliers in any virus and Covid is overwhelmingly fatal for the elderly. Any one individuals risk of dying in the next few months has not been increased that much but for some of the oldest that small change is enough. I think this pandemic has shown that if you give people accurate information they will collectively act to curtail the infection but the govornment hasn't been able to eradicate the virus because collectively we know it's not dangerous enough to sustain a lock down. And wreck the economy. It just isn't fair. Folk have to die of something and this year's trend is Covid.e

I think that at least when an existential crisis does come, some people's coping strategies may seem peculiar ( like purchasing large quantities of toilet toll), but collectively people' act sensibly. Because the next pandemic will be simmilar but could be much more dangerous like Measles.

Scotland Northern Ireland Union

I consider a new country based on the two British nations of Scotland and Northern Ireland would be the ideal solution to the inevitable dissolution to the United Kingdom.

If we accept that most European states are largely based on the Late Roman/Early Medieval ethnic groups and the territory they lived in. Despite all the feudal struggle and later ethnic cleansing, these modern democracies reflect genetic groups.

Here in Scotland genetic mapping shows that southern Scotland and Northern Ireland are the same group. More closely related than they are to northern Scotland and southern ireland. If we accept that Scotland is made up of Gaels,Picts, Northumbrians, and Britons ( and the genetics proves it does); then the modern state should reflect that ethnically there is a core group that lives in southern Scotland/northern Ireland with periphery groups in the rest of Scotland. The sectarian decide that has divided both areas is irrelevant. Religion and Surname are poorer indicators of ethnicity than geography and language.

That said they are important. Sense of collective identity is inextricably tied to belief. We tacitly accept the 17th century idea of the one true Protestant Monarch, ordained by God, as the supreme authority to which all other govornment institutions are legitimised. But in a secular Britain, this hierarchy is difficult to maintain, especially when it is seen to monopolise wealth and privilege.

Or to follow the 18th century ideal of a united republican Ireland. A geo-political concept, denying history and ethnicity.

I believe a new union that accepts it's ethnic basis, overlayed with recent migration and geography is the best solution to the "constitutional crisis" that is looming in the UK.

It will force England to accept that it is basically one homogenous ethnic group plus Wales and the South-West. And has been since long before the Norman Conquest.

However any such idea as this would need enthusiastic support from both sides in Northern Ireland and all of Scotland. It would also need the agreement of the UK and Ireland govornments. Going forward I believe it is not only politically expedient but also the fairest long term devising of these isles. It would be compliant with the Good Friday Agreement and force the new Scotland to administer cross border trade with a post brexit UK. I'm sure a Scottish govornment would accept EU oversight of the border as a condition of applying for membership.

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tinpigthinksbig

4 years ago

Folk say I look like James Dean or Steve McQueen. I see a 49 year old from Glasgow with hair and no fat staring back from the mirror.

If I was a character from Greek myth it would be Kassandra.

I've been head-butted by a flying fish.

I think this thread is getting older as it cycles so refuse to tag.

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tinpigthinksbig

3 years ago

The Return of the Flu – Swiss Policy Research

Swiss Policy Research

The Return of the Flu

The flu has returned to some countries with high rates of natural immunity against SARS-CoV-2. In contrast, countries with high vaccination

Now we start to see the Covid pandemic and the response in context. A population wide death rate of 0.15% regardless of what measures different countries took.

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tinpigthinksbig

5 years ago

"Young people make up a smaller proportion of the electorate than in 2016"~so by living Saunders is responsible for the aging population now. I can think of a few other septugenarians I would want to see euthenized before we got to Berne,( just to maintain a healthy demographic of course)

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tinpigthinksbig

5 years ago