I’m Fucking Done With That 40,000 Note Post Being Reblogged Left And Right. Here’s The Situation,

I’m fucking done with that 40,000 note post being reblogged left and right. Here’s the situation, shall we?

No, it’s not just “a fucking flu”. Well, it is, but it is a new virus which no one has immunity for, we have no vaccine for, and that, despite having a longer incubation period, seems to have a reproduction number estimated at 2.2. Seasonal flu, in contrast, is about 1.3. So, yes, it seems to be more contagious than the flu.

Covid-19 is particularly vicious for the elderly and immunodeficient people. In general, symptoms include fever, feeling out of breath, severe cough, which can turn into pneumonia. This doesn’t mean that you should underestimate it because you’re young and healthy: plenty of younger people, from 20s to 50s, have needed intubation, which’ll come back to later. That said, you should still protect others by following all hygienic guidelines (I’ll come back to this later).

On March 3, WHO Director-General said that “Globally, about 3.4% of reported COVID-19 cases have died. By comparison, seasonal flu generally kills far fewer than 1% of those infected.” However, in Italy, for instance, right now about 7% of those infected have died and 9% have recovered as of March 14th. Unfortunately, it takes a long time for the illness to complete its course despite treatment. 

Why was Italy hit so badly? Perhaps because on average we have an older population (average age is 45). But Italy started testing throughly from the get-go, which other most European countries didn’t do and some still refuse to do. Thing is, we perhaps also underestimated the severity of what was about to hit the country; many of the ill have needed intubation and intensive care, which has put our healthcare system under severe pressure even though it’s one of the best in the world. There simply aren’t enough ICUs for everyone… and Italy seems to have more ICU units than other European countries.

According to the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, “The risk of healthcare system capacity being exceeded in the EU/EEA and the UK in the coming weeks is considered high.” This is what we need to avoid.

Yes, doctors in Italy are doing triage. Yes, they have to choose who to treat and save in ICU.

A doctor from Milan admitted to have what she called a “goodbye list”. A list of video calls that those at the hospital with Covid 19 can do before they die, because their families can’t visit them. They die alone and they die perfectly lucid. In Bergamo (Northern Italy, one of the most affected areas) the mortuaries are full and are placing the dead in churches.

Italy is on lockdown. Families can’t see each other, people can only go out for basic necessities, shops are closed except few exceptions (incl. pharmacies and food shops), but more and more cases are still popping up because the incubation period is LONG and the measures will take a while to help. Still,

SUPERMARKETS ARE OPEN. SUPERMARKETS WILL STAY OPEN. STOP PANIC BUYING EVERYTHING.

The reason why we’re telling you all of this is not to say that it WILL happen wherever you are, but that it may. All of the above is the worst case scenario, but governments are taking preventive measures by going into moderate-severe lockdown to avoid all the above.

So, no, don’t take that fucking flight. I don’t know how to tell you this, but it doesn’t matter if you are young and healthy: you should care about others and their wellbeing. No, please do not travel.

Wash your hands regularly.

Sneeze and cough into your elbow.

Don’t shake hands.

Try and avoid social contact – perhaps consider not going clubbing or not going to the pub or the gym.

If you have Covid 19 symptoms, do not go to the ER. Call a doctor remotely.

Don’t panic, but don’t underestimate the situation either because at this point it’s just willful fucking ignorance.